Judge news, polls and political ads: bias, wording, sample size and context

Grade 12 Social Studies Worksheet - Building Confidence

Circle the best answer.

1. Read this first

   Use this

   Cards A to D on four items about library hours in Calder (all invented, for practice). Card A, "News story" (by a staff reporter, the Calder Courier, June 4): The board met June 3. The story quotes two board members, one for and one against, and gives the vote. Card B, "Column" (signed by an editor, headed "Our View"): "Longer hours would serve every family in Calder. The board should say yes." Card C, "Ad" (a box in the Courier, with the line "Paid for by Friends of Longer Hours"): "Library visits have doubled since 2019! Support longer hours." The ad gives no source for the visits. Card D, "Notice" (posted by the library board, June 5): "On June 3 the board voted 4 to 3 to open the main branch two extra evenings a week, starting September 1."

2. 1.

   Ari wants a record of what the board decided. Which item in Cards A to D is the most direct record?

   • The news story, since a reporter attended the meeting and gives the vote
   • The notice, posted by the board itself with the vote and the date
   • The ad, since it names the group that wants the result and cites visits
   • The column, since an editor signed it and says what the board should do
3. 2.

   Bo reads Card C. Which step should a careful reader take before repeating its claim about visits?

   • Reject it, since an ad paid for by a group can never contain a true claim
   • Repeat it, since a printed ad in the Courier has been checked by the paper
   • Look for a source: the ad cites none, and a group with a stake paid for it
   • Compare it with the column, since both use the word 'longer'
4. 3.

   Esme reads Card C. Who paid for the ad, and what follows for how to read it?

   • The Courier paid, so its claim carries the paper's checking
   • The board paid, so its claim is the board's official position
   • Friends of Longer Hours paid, so the claim needs a check
   • A reporter paid, so its claim is a news report in a paid box
5. 4.

   Jun reads this claim: 'The column shows most families in Calder want longer hours.' Which response do the cards support?

   • Overstated: Card B is the editor's view, and no card counts what families want
   • Right: Card C says visits doubled, which shows families want longer hours
   • Wrong: the board voted 4 to 3, so most families must oppose longer hours
   • Right: Card B says longer hours would serve each family, so families must want them

6. Use this

   Cards A and B on polls. Card A, "How polls work" (summary in our words, not a quotation): A poll asks a sample of people. If the sample is chosen at random from the whole group, its results can describe the group. For a poll of n people chosen at random, the margin of error is about 100 divided by the square root of n, in percentage points. For a change between two separate polls of the same size, the margin is about 1.4 times that. A poll in which people choose themselves to answer is not a random sample, so the rule does not apply to it. Card B, "Two polls about a skate park in Hollis" (invented, for practice): Poll 1: a skaters' web page posts a link, and 2,500 visitors vote. Eighty percent say build it. Poll 2: a polling firm phones 400 randomly chosen Hollis adults. Fifty-eight percent say build it.

7. 5.

   Kira reads Cards A and B. Which poll can describe Hollis adults?

   • Both polls, because each asked people in or near Hollis about the same park
   • Poll 1, because 2,500 people gives a margin of error of just 2 points
   • Poll 2, because its 400 people were chosen at random from Hollis adults
   • Poll 1, because 80 percent is a bigger share than Poll 2's 58 percent
8. 6.

   Luz uses Card A on Poll 2: 58 percent, 400 randomly chosen adults. The margin is about 5 points. Can the poll say a majority of Hollis adults want the park?

   • No: the range is 48 to 68, because the margin is doubled to 10 points
   • Yes, but because Poll 1 found 80 percent and confirms it
   • No: 58 is within 8 points of 50, so the result is too close to call
   • Yes: the range is about 53 to 63 percent, which stays above 50
9. 7.

   Milo reads Card B. Why might Poll 1's 80 percent overstate support among all Hollis adults?

   • 2,500 is too few people for a percentage to mean anything about a town
   • Visitors to a skaters' page chose to answer, and likely want a park
   • Online polls cannot be counted, since anyone can click more than once
   • The margin of error for Poll 1 is 10 points, which makes 80 percent uncertain
10. 8.

    Noah reads this claim: 'Poll 1 has more people than Poll 2, so it is more accurate for the town.' Which response do Cards A and B support?

    • Wrong: Poll 2 asked adults and Poll 1 asked skaters, so skaters' views do not count
    • Right: the margin of error falls as the sample grows, so 2,500 beats 400 in each case
    • Right: the more people vote, the more the vote shows the whole town
    • Weak: sample choice matters more than size, and Poll 1's 2,500 chose themselves

11. Use this

    Cards A to C on a quote in Calder (invented, for practice). Card A, "What the councilmember said" (at the June 3 meeting): "I support extending hours at the main branch, but I cannot support cutting the bookmobile to pay for it." Councilmember Ortiz. Card B, "The ad" (a box in the Courier, with the line "Paid for by Friends of Longer Hours"): "Councilmember Ortiz says she 'cannot support' this plan." Card C, "The rule" (a Calder rule): Every political ad must say who paid for it.

12. 9.

    Pia compares Cards A and B. What does the ad leave out of the councilmember's sentence?

    • The words 'cannot support,' which the ad changed to 'cannot approve'
    • The date of the meeting, which the ad should have printed with the quote
    • The first half: Ortiz supports extending hours at the main branch
    • Ortiz's position on the bookmobile, which the ad stated in full
13. 10.

    Tala reads Cards B and C. What does the line 'Paid for by Friends of Longer Hours' tell a reader?

    • The ad is official, since a Calder rule requires the line
    • The quote is false, since a group that wants a result twists words
    • Who paid: a group that wants the result, a reason to check the full statement
    • The ad is the Courier's own report, because the line appears inside the paper