Birth rates, death rates and the demographic transition

Grade 9 Social Studies Worksheet - Challenge Me

Circle the best answer.

1. Read this first

   Birth and death rates, 1960, 1990 and 2023

   Country	Births 1960	Births 1990	Births 2023	Deaths 1960	Deaths 1990	Deaths 2023
   South Korea	42.1	15.2	4.5	13.0	5.6	6.9
   Mexico	46.9	29.4	15.7	14.0	6.2	6.2
   Niger	57.6	55.1	41.9	27.6	24.1	8.9
   the world	32.0	26.3	16.3	17.2	9.3	7.6

   Note: Rates per 1,000 people, World Bank figures from UN estimates. The demographic transition model: in Stage 1 birth and death rates are both high and roughly in balance, so the population grows very slowly; in Stage 2 the death rate falls quickly while the birth rate stays high, so the population grows fast; in Stage 3 the birth rate falls and growth begins to level off; in Stage 4 both rates are low and the population is roughly stable. Some scholars add a Stage 5, but they disagree about what it looks like. Natural increase is births minus deaths. Migration is not counted. The rates are not adjusted for age, and a population with more older people has a higher death rate even when health care improves. In northwestern Europe, death rates began to fall in the late 1700s, and the fall spread south and east over about the next 100 years. Countries move through the stages at different speeds.

2. 1.

   Niger's births fell from 57.6 to 41.9 and its deaths from 27.6 to 8.9 between 1960 and 2023. Yet its natural increase rose from 30.0 to 33.0. How does Ari explain it?

   • Births rose, since a rising natural increase must come from births that went up over the years
   • Deaths fell faster than births (18.7 points against 15.7), so the gap between them widened
   • Births fell faster than deaths, so the gap between the two rates widened over the years
   • Natural increase is the sum of births and deaths, so it rose when both stayed fairly high
3. 2.

   World births were 32.0 per 1,000 in 1960 and 26.3 in 1990. Bo says growth was fastest in 1960 because births were highest. Check it against deaths.

   • Yes: deaths were lowest in 1960, so the gap between births and deaths was widest
   • No: deaths were also highest in 1960 (17.2), so natural increase was 14.8, below 1990's 17.0
   • Yes: births were highest in 1960, so natural increase was highest in 1960 as well
   • No: natural increase was about the same in the three years, between 13 and 17 per 1,000
4. 3.

   South Korea's death rate rose from 5.6 in 1990 to 6.9 in 2023. Esme says its health got worse. What does the note suggest?

   • The rise shows more migration into the country, since migration raises the death rate
   • The rise is a mistake in the data, since death rates in Stage 4 do not rise
   • The rise shows worse health, since a death rate measures the health of a people directly
   • A population with more older people has a higher death rate even when health care improves
5. 4.

   Mexico's births fell from 29.4 in 1990 to 15.7 in 2023 while its deaths stayed at 6.2. What does Jun see in the model?

   • Stage 4 already: births fell below 20, so Mexico's population is stable and no longer grows
   • Stage 2: births fell while deaths stayed low, so the population grew faster than before
   • Stage 3 moving toward Stage 4: births fell while deaths held, so the gap closed to 9.5
   • Stage 3 moving toward Stage 2: deaths stayed low, which is the Stage 2 mark, and births fell
6. 5.

   South Korea had 4.5 births and 6.9 deaths in 2023. Where does Kira place it in the four-stage model?

   • Stage 4, since both rates are low and the population is roughly stable over time
   • Stage 5, since scholars agree that low births with high deaths is the fifth stage
   • Beyond Stage 4: deaths exceed births, which the four stages do not cover
   • Stage 1, since deaths above births is how the model describes its first stage
7. 6.

   Niger's deaths fell 3.5 points from 1960 to 1990 but 15.2 from 1990 to 2023. Luz says it entered Stage 2 only after 1990. What do the natural increases say?

   • Not supported: natural increase was already 30.0 in 1960, so growth was fast well before
   • Supported: a natural increase of 30.0 is the mark of Stage 1, so Stage 2 came later on
   • Not supported: Niger's births fell fast from 1960 to 1990, which shows Stage 3 at work
   • Supported: deaths fell little before 1990, so Stage 2 began later than that year
8. 7.

   South Korea's births fell from 42.1 to 15.2 in 30 years, while the note says Europe's fall in deaths took about 100 years. Milo says late starters always move faster. What does Niger show?

   • The claim holds for births but not deaths, since Niger's deaths fell 3.5 points by 1990
   • The claim fails because South Korea's births fell faster than Europe's, which contradicts it
   • South Korea is one example; Niger's births fell only from 57.6 to 55.1 in those 30 years
   • The claim holds, since a late start means technology arrives and the stages pass quickly
9. 8.

   World births fell from 32.0 to 16.3 and deaths from 17.2 to 7.6 between 1960 and 2023. Noah says births fell more than deaths. Is that right?

   • In points yes (15.7 against 9.6), but in percent deaths fell more (56% against 49%)
   • Yes on both measures: births fell 15.7 points and deaths 9.6, so births fell more
   • The two fell by the same amount, since both rates were halved between 1960 and 2023
   • No on both measures: deaths fell 56% and births 49%, so deaths fell more in points too
10. 9.

    South Korea's natural increase fell from 29.1 in 1960 to -2.4 in 2023, Mexico's from 32.9 to 9.5. Which is further along in the model, Pia?

    • Neither: both countries began with natural increases near 30, so they are the same
    • Mexico: its natural increase is higher, and a higher natural increase is a later stage
    • South Korea: its births fell to 4.5 against Mexico's 15.7, past Stage 4
    • Mexico: its births fell by more points than South Korea's from 1960 to 2023
11. 10.

    Zee predicts that if Niger's births fall to Mexico's 1990 level, 29.4, with deaths at 8.9, growth will become slow. Is that sound?

    • No: natural increase would stay at 33.0, since births do not affect natural increase
    • Yes: natural increase would equal the births, 29.4, and so would be a moderate rate
    • Yes: births of 29.4 are low, so natural increase would be small once births fall
    • No: natural increase would still be 20.5 per 1,000, about 2.1% a year, fast growth