Birth rates, death rates and the demographic transition

Grade 9 Social Studies Worksheet

Circle the best answer.

1. Read this first

   Birth and death rates in seven countries, 1960 and 2023

   Country	Births 1960	Births 2023	Deaths 1960	Deaths 2023
   Niger	57.6	41.9	27.6	8.9
   Bangladesh	49.0	20.4	21.6	5.0
   India	42.9	16.1	19.4	6.6
   Brazil	43.9	12.3	13.6	7.1
   United States	23.7	10.7	9.5	9.2
   Germany	17.3	8.3	12.0	12.3
   Japan	17.2	6.0	7.6	13.0

   Note: Rates per 1,000 people, World Bank figures from UN estimates. The demographic transition model: in Stage 1 birth and death rates are both high and roughly in balance, so the population grows very slowly; in Stage 2 the death rate falls quickly while the birth rate stays high, so the population grows fast; in Stage 3 the birth rate falls and growth begins to level off; in Stage 4 both rates are low and the population is roughly stable. The stages describe change over time, so a country is placed by how its two rates have moved. Some scholars add a Stage 5, but they disagree about what it looks like. Natural increase is births minus deaths per 1,000. Divide by 10 to get a percent a year. Doubling time in years is about 70 divided by the growth in percent a year. Migration is not counted. The rates are not adjusted for age: a population with more older people has a higher death rate even when health care improves. The stages have no exact cutoffs.

2. 1.

   Niger's births fell from 57.6 to 41.9 per 1,000 between 1960 and 2023, and its deaths from 27.6 to 8.9. Which stage does Ari choose?

   • Stage 1: both rates were high in 1960, and high rates mean the earliest stage
   • Stage 2: deaths fell much faster than births, and births are still very high
   • Stage 4: a death rate of 8.9 is low, so the population is roughly stable
   • Stage 3: births have fallen by 15.7, so growth is beginning to level off
3. 2.

   India's births fell from 42.9 to 16.1 per 1,000 between 1960 and 2023, and its deaths from 19.4 to 6.6. Which stage does Bo choose?

   • Stage 4: both rates are now below 20, and so the population is roughly stable
   • Stage 2: deaths fell a long way, and in Stage 2 growth stays fast, so the gap stays wide
   • Stage 1: both rates were high in 1960, and India's rates still follow that pattern
   • Stage 3: births fell by more than deaths, so the gap narrowed from 23.5 to 9.5
4. 3.

   Germany's births fell from 17.3 to 8.3 per 1,000 between 1960 and 2023, while its deaths went from 12.0 to 12.3. How does Esme place it?

   • Beyond Stage 4: births fell below deaths, a change the four stages do not cover
   • Stage 4: both rates are low, and so the population is roughly stable over the years
   • Stage 5: scholars agree that this is the fifth stage of the model, with births below deaths
   • Stage 3: births are falling and growth is levelling off, which is what has happened
5. 4.

   Niger's natural increase is 33.0 per 1,000 and Bangladesh's is 15.4. Kira asks which would double faster if the rates held, and by how much.

   • Niger, in about 17 years against about 34 for Bangladesh, using births alone
   • Niger, in about 21 years against about 45 for Bangladesh, since 3.3% is over twice 1.54%
   • Bangladesh, in about 21 years against about 45 for Niger, since its death rate is lower than Niger's
   • Both in about the same time, since both are growing and both rates are per 1,000
6. 5.

   The United States has 10.7 births and 9.2 deaths per 1,000. Luz says its population is therefore growing by only 0.15% a year. What is the limit of that statement?

   • No limit: births minus deaths gives a country's whole growth, and migration is part of it
   • The country is shrinking, since the death rate of 9.2 is close to the birth rate of 10.7
   • The 0.15% should be 1.5%, since 1.5 per 1,000 is 1.5 percent of a country's people
   • 0.15% is the natural increase; the figures leave out migration, so total growth could differ
7. 6.

   Bangladesh's death rate, 5.0, is lower than Germany's, 12.3. Milo says Bangladesh must have better health care. What is the limit on this reading?

   • No limit: a lower death rate shows better health care, so the claim holds in full
   • Germany has the better health care, since a death rate of 12.3 shows its people live longer
   • The rates are per 1,000 people, so they cannot be compared between countries of different sizes
   • The rates are not adjusted for age, so a younger population can have a lower death rate
8. 7.

   Ranking the seven countries by birth rate gives the same order as ranking by natural increase. Noah says the birth rate alone sets natural increase. Is that right?

   • Yes: natural increase is the birth rate divided by the death rate, so births rank it
   • No: the orders match because the death rate is larger than the birth rate in most of the countries
   • Yes: since the orders match, deaths have no effect on natural increase in these seven countries
   • No: natural increase is births minus deaths; the orders match because deaths vary less than births
9. 8.

   Brazil has 12.3 births and 7.1 deaths; the United States has 10.7 and 9.2. Which difference accounts for more of the gap in natural increase, Pia?

   • Neither: the two differences are the same size, so they cancel out in the natural increase
   • The death rates alone, since birth rates of 12.3 and 10.7 are too close to matter here
   • The death rates: Brazil's lower deaths add 2.1, more than its higher births add (1.6)
   • The birth rates: Brazil's higher births add more to the gap than its lower deaths do
10. 9.

    Niger's natural increase is 33.0 per 1,000, or 3.3% a year. Ren says Niger will double its population by about 2045. What does the note allow?

    • The claim fails, since a high birth rate is falling and doubling cannot happen in that time
    • The claim holds, since 41.9 births per 1,000 means doubling in about 17 years
    • The claim holds, since 70 divided by 3.3 is 21 and 2023 plus 21 is 2044, a firm date
    • About 21 years if the rate held, and migration is left out, so it is not a forecast
11. 10.

    Bangladesh has 20.4 births and 5.0 deaths per 1,000. Zee asks whether it is Stage 2 or Stage 3. What is the sound answer?

    • Stage 1, because its death rate of 5.0 is the lowest of the seven and Stage 1 is stable
    • Stage 4, because both of its rates are low compared with Niger's, which makes it stable
    • Stage 2 exactly, because any natural increase above 15 per 1,000 makes it Stage 2
    • Between the two: births fell far below Niger's, but the gap of 15.4 is large