Birth rates, death rates and the demographic transition

Grade 9 Social Studies Worksheet

Circle the best answer.

1. Read this first

   Birth and death rates in seven countries, 1960 and 2023

   Country	Births 1960	Births 2023	Deaths 1960	Deaths 2023
   Niger	57.6	41.9	27.6	8.9
   Bangladesh	49.0	20.4	21.6	5.0
   India	42.9	16.1	19.4	6.6
   Brazil	43.9	12.3	13.6	7.1
   United States	23.7	10.7	9.5	9.2
   Germany	17.3	8.3	12.0	12.3
   Japan	17.2	6.0	7.6	13.0

   Note: Rates per 1,000 people, World Bank figures from UN estimates. The demographic transition model: in Stage 1 birth and death rates are both high and roughly in balance, so the population grows very slowly; in Stage 2 the death rate falls quickly while the birth rate stays high, so the population grows fast; in Stage 3 the birth rate falls and growth begins to level off; in Stage 4 both rates are low and the population is roughly stable. The stages describe change over time, so a country is placed by how its two rates have moved. Some scholars add a Stage 5, but they disagree about what it looks like. Natural increase is births minus deaths per 1,000. Divide by 10 to get a percent a year. Doubling time in years is about 70 divided by the growth in percent a year. Migration is not counted. The rates are not adjusted for age: a population with more older people has a higher death rate even when health care improves. The stages have no exact cutoffs.

2. 1.

   Germany's births fell from 17.3 to 8.3 per 1,000 between 1960 and 2023, while its deaths went from 12.0 to 12.3. How does Esme place it?

   • Stage 5: scholars agree that this is the fifth stage of the model, with births below deaths
   • Beyond Stage 4: births fell below deaths, a change the four stages do not cover
   • Stage 3: births are falling and growth is levelling off, which is what has happened
   • Stage 4: both rates are low, and so the population is roughly stable over the years
3. 2.

   Bangladesh has 20.4 births and 5.0 deaths per 1,000. If that natural increase held, how fast would Jun expect it to grow, and how long to double?

   • About 2.0% a year, doubling in about 34 years, using births alone
   • About 15% a year, doubling in about 5 years, since 15.4 per 1,000 is 15.4%
   • About 0.15% a year, doubling in about 470 years, since the percent is the rate divided by 100
   • About 1.5% a year, doubling in about 45 years if the rate held and migration is left out
4. 3.

   Niger's natural increase is 33.0 per 1,000 and Bangladesh's is 15.4. Kira asks which would double faster if the rates held, and by how much.

   • Both in about the same time, since both are growing and both rates are per 1,000
   • Niger, in about 21 years against about 45 for Bangladesh, since 3.3% is over twice 1.54%
   • Bangladesh, in about 21 years against about 45 for Niger, since its death rate is lower than Niger's
   • Niger, in about 17 years against about 34 for Bangladesh, using births alone
5. 4.

   The United States has 10.7 births and 9.2 deaths per 1,000. Luz says its population is therefore growing by only 0.15% a year. What is the limit of that statement?

   • The 0.15% should be 1.5%, since 1.5 per 1,000 is 1.5 percent of a country's people
   • 0.15% is the natural increase; the figures leave out migration, so total growth could differ
   • The country is shrinking, since the death rate of 9.2 is close to the birth rate of 10.7
   • No limit: births minus deaths gives a country's whole growth, and migration is part of it
6. 5.

   Bangladesh's death rate, 5.0, is lower than Germany's, 12.3. Milo says Bangladesh must have better health care. What is the limit on this reading?

   • The rates are per 1,000 people, so they cannot be compared between countries of different sizes
   • The rates are not adjusted for age, so a younger population can have a lower death rate
   • No limit: a lower death rate shows better health care, so the claim holds in full
   • Germany has the better health care, since a death rate of 12.3 shows its people live longer
7. 6.

   Ranking the seven countries by birth rate gives the same order as ranking by natural increase. Noah says the birth rate alone sets natural increase. Is that right?

   • Yes: natural increase is the birth rate divided by the death rate, so births rank it
   • No: natural increase is births minus deaths; the orders match because deaths vary less than births
   • Yes: since the orders match, deaths have no effect on natural increase in these seven countries
   • No: the orders match because the death rate is larger than the birth rate in most of the countries
8. 7.

   Brazil has 12.3 births and 7.1 deaths; the United States has 10.7 and 9.2. Which difference accounts for more of the gap in natural increase, Pia?

   • The birth rates: Brazil's higher births add more to the gap than its lower deaths do
   • Neither: the two differences are the same size, so they cancel out in the natural increase
   • The death rates: Brazil's lower deaths add 2.1, more than its higher births add (1.6)
   • The death rates alone, since birth rates of 12.3 and 10.7 are too close to matter here
9. 8.

   Niger's natural increase is 33.0 per 1,000, or 3.3% a year. Ren says Niger will double its population by about 2045. What does the note allow?

   • About 21 years if the rate held, and migration is left out, so it is not a forecast
   • The claim holds, since 70 divided by 3.3 is 21 and 2023 plus 21 is 2044, a firm date
   • The claim holds, since 41.9 births per 1,000 means doubling in about 17 years
   • The claim fails, since a high birth rate is falling and doubling cannot happen in that time
10. 9.

    Germany and Japan have more deaths than births. Tala says the model has failed. What is the fair statement?

    • The model fits them as Stage 4, since their rates are low and Stage 4 means low rates
    • The model has failed, since each country must fit one of its four stages or the model is wrong
    • The model fits them as Stage 1, since deaths above births marks the earliest stage
    • The four stages stop at a stable population, so Germany and Japan lie beyond them
11. 10.

    Bangladesh has 20.4 births and 5.0 deaths per 1,000. Zee asks whether it is Stage 2 or Stage 3. What is the sound answer?

    • Between the two: births fell far below Niger's, but the gap of 15.4 is large
    • Stage 4, because both of its rates are low compared with Niger's, which makes it stable
    • Stage 2 exactly, because any natural increase above 15 per 1,000 makes it Stage 2
    • Stage 1, because its death rate of 5.0 is the lowest of the seven and Stage 1 is stable