Birth rates, death rates and the demographic transition

Grade 9 Social Studies Worksheet - Building Confidence

Circle the best answer.

1. Read this first

   Five invented countries, births and deaths per 1,000 people a year

   Country	Births	Deaths
   Arda	41	39
   Brev	40	12
   Corm	19	8
   Dell	11	10
   Esk	8	12

   Note: The countries are invented. The demographic transition model describes a common pattern, not one country's data. Stage 1: birth and death rates are both high and roughly in balance, so the population grows very slowly. Stage 2: the death rate falls quickly while the birth rate stays high, so the population grows fast. Stage 3: the birth rate falls and growth begins to level off. Stage 4: birth and death rates are both low and the population is roughly stable. Natural increase = birth rate minus death rate, and it leaves out migration. Some scholars add a Stage 5, but they disagree about what it looks like.

2. 1.

   Brev has 40 births and 12 deaths per 1,000 people. Which stage does Ari choose?

   • Stage 2: the death rate is low while the birth rate is still high, so growth is fast
   • Stage 4, because the death rate of 12 is low and a low death rate means a stable population
   • Stage 1, because its birth rate is high, and Stage 1 is the stage of high birth rates
   • Stage 3, because its birth rate is falling and its growth is beginning to level off
3. 2.

   Corm has 19 births and 8 deaths per 1,000 people. Which stage does Bo choose?

   • Stage 4, because both rates are below 20 and so both count as low and close together
   • Stage 1, because its death rate of 8 is lower than its birth rate of 19, as in the earliest stage
   • Stage 3: births have fallen well below Stage 2 levels but still exceed deaths
   • Stage 2, because births still exceed deaths by a wide margin and the population is growing fast
4. 3.

   Arda has 41 births and 39 deaths; Dell has 11 births and 10 deaths. Both grow slowly, yet Esme puts them in different stages. Why?

   • Arda is Stage 4, because its high rates show a long-settled population, and Dell is Stage 1
   • They should be in the same stage, since the gap between births and deaths is almost the same
   • Arda's rates are both high (Stage 1) and Dell's both low (Stage 4), though both gaps are small
   • Arda is Stage 2, because its births are high, and Dell is Stage 3, because its births are low
5. 4.

   Brev's natural increase is 28 per 1,000. For a town of 10,000 people, what does Jun expect from births and deaths?

   • About 28 more people a year, since the rate is 28 whatever the size of the town
   • About 2,800 more people a year, since 28 per 1,000 means 28%
   • About 280 more people a year, since 28 per 1,000 is 280 per 10,000
   • About 520 more people a year, since births and deaths are added to get the change
6. 5.

   Esk has a natural decrease of 4 per 1,000, yet its population grew this year. Can that be, Kira?

   • Yes: if more people moved in than the natural decrease removed, since migration is left out
   • No: a natural decrease means the population must have fallen, since births and deaths set it
   • Yes: births must have been higher than deaths this year, which the table hides from view
   • No: migration takes people away from a place, so it could not have helped Esk grow in a year
7. 6.

   Esk has more deaths than births. Milo calls it Stage 5. What do the notes say?

   • Stage 4, because both of Esk's rates are low and so its population is stable over time
   • Some scholars add a Stage 5, but they disagree about it, so the label is debated
   • Stage 5 is part of the model, and scholars place any country with more deaths there
   • Stage 1, because deaths above births is the mark of the earliest stage of the model
8. 7.

   Noah says Dell must have passed through Stages 2 and 3 because the model has four stages. What do the notes allow?

   • The claim holds, since the model has each country pass through the four stages in order
   • The claim holds, since Dell's present rates are those of Stage 4, which follows Stage 3
   • The model shows a common pattern, and the notes give no history for Dell
   • The claim fails, since a country can reach Stage 4 without going through the earlier ones
9. 8.

   In the model, what changes first as a country moves from Stage 1, and what does it cause, Pia?

   • Both rates fall together, so growth stays the same through the first stages
   • The birth rate falls first, so growth slows before the death rate falls
   • The death rate rises first, since a rising population needs more care, which slows growth
   • The death rate falls first, in Stage 2, so growth speeds up before the birth rate falls
10. 9.

    Dell has 11 births and 10 deaths per 1,000 people. Ren says low rates mean Dell has a small population. Is that right?

    • No: rates are per 1,000 people, so they do not show how many people live in Dell
    • Yes: a rate of 11 births is small, so the number of people must be small
    • No: low rates mean a large population, since many people spread births thinly
    • Yes: Stage 4 countries are small, since their populations are roughly stable
11. 10.

    Corm's birth rate (19) is far below Brev's (40). Zee says Corm's population must be falling. Is that right?

    • No: Corm's population is stable, because births of 19 are low and so match deaths
    • Yes: Corm's rate of 19 is below 20, and a rate below 20 means the population falls
    • No: Corm's births still exceed deaths by 11 per 1,000, so its population still grows
    • Yes: a falling birth rate means a falling population, since fewer births shrink a country