Birth rates, death rates and the demographic transition

Grade 9 Social Studies Worksheet - Building Confidence

Circle the best answer.

1. Read this first

   Five invented countries, births and deaths per 1,000 people a year

   Country	Births	Deaths
   Arda	41	39
   Brev	40	12
   Corm	19	8
   Dell	11	10
   Esk	8	12

   Note: The countries are invented. The demographic transition model describes a common pattern, not one country's data. Stage 1: birth and death rates are both high and roughly in balance, so the population grows very slowly. Stage 2: the death rate falls quickly while the birth rate stays high, so the population grows fast. Stage 3: the birth rate falls and growth begins to level off. Stage 4: birth and death rates are both low and the population is roughly stable. Natural increase = birth rate minus death rate, and it leaves out migration. Some scholars add a Stage 5, but they disagree about what it looks like.

2. 1.

   Brev has 40 births and 12 deaths per 1,000 people. Which stage does Ari choose?

   • Stage 3, because its birth rate is falling and its growth is beginning to level off
   • Stage 2: the death rate is low while the birth rate is still high, so growth is fast
   • Stage 4, because the death rate of 12 is low and a low death rate means a stable population
   • Stage 1, because its birth rate is high, and Stage 1 is the stage of high birth rates
3. 2.

   Arda has 41 births and 39 deaths; Dell has 11 births and 10 deaths. Both grow slowly, yet Esme puts them in different stages. Why?

   • They should be in the same stage, since the gap between births and deaths is almost the same
   • Arda's rates are both high (Stage 1) and Dell's both low (Stage 4), though both gaps are small
   • Arda is Stage 2, because its births are high, and Dell is Stage 3, because its births are low
   • Arda is Stage 4, because its high rates show a long-settled population, and Dell is Stage 1
4. 3.

   Brev's natural increase is 28 per 1,000. For a town of 10,000 people, what does Jun expect from births and deaths?

   • About 2,800 more people a year, since 28 per 1,000 means 28%
   • About 280 more people a year, since 28 per 1,000 is 280 per 10,000
   • About 520 more people a year, since births and deaths are added to get the change
   • About 28 more people a year, since the rate is 28 whatever the size of the town
5. 4.

   Esk has a natural decrease of 4 per 1,000, yet its population grew this year. Can that be, Kira?

   • No: migration takes people away from a place, so it could not have helped Esk grow in a year
   • Yes: births must have been higher than deaths this year, which the table hides from view
   • No: a natural decrease means the population must have fallen, since births and deaths set it
   • Yes: if more people moved in than the natural decrease removed, since migration is left out
6. 5.

   Corm has 19 births and 8 deaths per 1,000; Brev has 40 and 12. Which has the larger natural increase, and why does Luz say it is not odd?

   • They are equal, since both countries have more births than deaths, so both grow equally
   • Brev, 28 against 11, since in Stage 2 births stay high while deaths fall
   • Corm, since later stages of the model give a larger natural increase than the earlier ones
   • Brev, since its death rate of 12 is higher than Corm's 8, which adds to its growth
7. 6.

   Esk has more deaths than births. Milo calls it Stage 5. What do the notes say?

   • Stage 4, because both of Esk's rates are low and so its population is stable over time
   • Stage 5 is part of the model, and scholars place any country with more deaths there
   • Some scholars add a Stage 5, but they disagree about it, so the label is debated
   • Stage 1, because deaths above births is the mark of the earliest stage of the model
8. 7.

   Noah says Dell must have passed through Stages 2 and 3 because the model has four stages. What do the notes allow?

   • The claim fails, since a country can reach Stage 4 without going through the earlier ones
   • The claim holds, since Dell's present rates are those of Stage 4, which follows Stage 3
   • The model shows a common pattern, and the notes give no history for Dell
   • The claim holds, since the model has each country pass through the four stages in order
9. 8.

   In the model, what changes first as a country moves from Stage 1, and what does it cause, Pia?

   • The death rate falls first, in Stage 2, so growth speeds up before the birth rate falls
   • Both rates fall together, so growth stays the same through the first stages
   • The death rate rises first, since a rising population needs more care, which slows growth
   • The birth rate falls first, so growth slows before the death rate falls
10. 9.

    Dell has 11 births and 10 deaths per 1,000 people. Ren says low rates mean Dell has a small population. Is that right?

    • No: rates are per 1,000 people, so they do not show how many people live in Dell
    • Yes: a rate of 11 births is small, so the number of people must be small
    • Yes: Stage 4 countries are small, since their populations are roughly stable
    • No: low rates mean a large population, since many people spread births thinly
11. 10.

    Arda and Brev both have about 40 births per 1,000. Tala says Brev grows fast because of its births. What is missing?

    • Brev must have more migration than Arda, which the table leaves out of its rates
    • Nothing: births of 40 per 1,000 cause fast growth wherever they occur, so births explain Brev
    • Brev's deaths of 12 are high, which is what makes its growth fast compared with Arda
    • Arda has the same births but almost no growth; Brev grows because its deaths are low