Birth rates, death rates and the demographic transition

Grade 9 Social Studies Worksheet - Building Confidence

Circle the best answer.

1. Read this first

   Five invented countries, births and deaths per 1,000 people a year

   Country	Births	Deaths
   Arda	41	39
   Brev	40	12
   Corm	19	8
   Dell	11	10
   Esk	8	12

   Note: The countries are invented. The demographic transition model describes a common pattern, not one country's data. Stage 1: birth and death rates are both high and roughly in balance, so the population grows very slowly. Stage 2: the death rate falls quickly while the birth rate stays high, so the population grows fast. Stage 3: the birth rate falls and growth begins to level off. Stage 4: birth and death rates are both low and the population is roughly stable. Natural increase = birth rate minus death rate, and it leaves out migration. Some scholars add a Stage 5, but they disagree about what it looks like.

2. 1.

   Brev has 40 births and 12 deaths per 1,000 people. Which stage does Ari choose?

   • Stage 4, because the death rate of 12 is low and a low death rate means a stable population
   • Stage 2: the death rate is low while the birth rate is still high, so growth is fast
   • Stage 1, because its birth rate is high, and Stage 1 is the stage of high birth rates
   • Stage 3, because its birth rate is falling and its growth is beginning to level off
3. 2.

   Corm has 19 births and 8 deaths per 1,000 people. Which stage does Bo choose?

   • Stage 1, because its death rate of 8 is lower than its birth rate of 19, as in the earliest stage
   • Stage 2, because births still exceed deaths by a wide margin and the population is growing fast
   • Stage 4, because both rates are below 20 and so both count as low and close together
   • Stage 3: births have fallen well below Stage 2 levels but still exceed deaths
4. 3.

   Esk has a natural decrease of 4 per 1,000, yet its population grew this year. Can that be, Kira?

   • Yes: births must have been higher than deaths this year, which the table hides from view
   • Yes: if more people moved in than the natural decrease removed, since migration is left out
   • No: a natural decrease means the population must have fallen, since births and deaths set it
   • No: migration takes people away from a place, so it could not have helped Esk grow in a year
5. 4.

   Corm has 19 births and 8 deaths per 1,000; Brev has 40 and 12. Which has the larger natural increase, and why does Luz say it is not odd?

   • They are equal, since both countries have more births than deaths, so both grow equally
   • Brev, since its death rate of 12 is higher than Corm's 8, which adds to its growth
   • Brev, 28 against 11, since in Stage 2 births stay high while deaths fall
   • Corm, since later stages of the model give a larger natural increase than the earlier ones
6. 5.

   Esk has more deaths than births. Milo calls it Stage 5. What do the notes say?

   • Stage 5 is part of the model, and scholars place any country with more deaths there
   • Stage 4, because both of Esk's rates are low and so its population is stable over time
   • Some scholars add a Stage 5, but they disagree about it, so the label is debated
   • Stage 1, because deaths above births is the mark of the earliest stage of the model
7. 6.

   Noah says Dell must have passed through Stages 2 and 3 because the model has four stages. What do the notes allow?

   • The claim holds, since Dell's present rates are those of Stage 4, which follows Stage 3
   • The model shows a common pattern, and the notes give no history for Dell
   • The claim fails, since a country can reach Stage 4 without going through the earlier ones
   • The claim holds, since the model has each country pass through the four stages in order
8. 7.

   In the model, what changes first as a country moves from Stage 1, and what does it cause, Pia?

   • Both rates fall together, so growth stays the same through the first stages
   • The birth rate falls first, so growth slows before the death rate falls
   • The death rate rises first, since a rising population needs more care, which slows growth
   • The death rate falls first, in Stage 2, so growth speeds up before the birth rate falls
9. 8.

   Dell has 11 births and 10 deaths per 1,000 people. Ren says low rates mean Dell has a small population. Is that right?

   • No: rates are per 1,000 people, so they do not show how many people live in Dell
   • No: low rates mean a large population, since many people spread births thinly
   • Yes: Stage 4 countries are small, since their populations are roughly stable
   • Yes: a rate of 11 births is small, so the number of people must be small
10. 9.

    Arda and Brev both have about 40 births per 1,000. Tala says Brev grows fast because of its births. What is missing?

    • Arda has the same births but almost no growth; Brev grows because its deaths are low
    • Brev's deaths of 12 are high, which is what makes its growth fast compared with Arda
    • Brev must have more migration than Arda, which the table leaves out of its rates
    • Nothing: births of 40 per 1,000 cause fast growth wherever they occur, so births explain Brev
11. 10.

    Corm's birth rate (19) is far below Brev's (40). Zee says Corm's population must be falling. Is that right?

    • No: Corm's births still exceed deaths by 11 per 1,000, so its population still grows
    • No: Corm's population is stable, because births of 19 are low and so match deaths
    • Yes: a falling birth rate means a falling population, since fewer births shrink a country
    • Yes: Corm's rate of 19 is below 20, and a rate below 20 means the population falls