Read population pyramids

Grade 9 Social Studies Worksheet - Challenge Me

Circle the best answer.

1. Read this first

   Card E, fertility in 2023 (births per woman; UN estimates, World Bank)

   Niger 6.1; India 2.0; Brazil 1.6; United States 1.6; Germany 1.4; Japan 1.2. Card F, age shares (as a share of the population: aged 0–14, aged 65+): Niger 47.0%, 2.6%; India 25.1%, 6.9%; Brazil 19.9%, 10.6%; United States 17.6%, 17.4%; Germany 13.9%, 22.8%; Japan 11.6%, 29.6%. Card G, notes: replacement fertility is about 2.1 births per woman; below it, each generation of children is smaller than its parents' generation. A population can keep growing for years after fertility falls to replacement or below, because many young people are still becoming parents. A pyramid reflects births, deaths and migration over past decades, not only fertility today. Pyramid types: expansive (wide base), constrictive (narrow base), stationary (about the same width from bottom to top).

2. 1.

   India's fertility, 2.0, is below replacement, yet its population still grows. Using Card G, why, Ren asks?

   • Older people live longer in India, and that alone raises growth even if births fall below replacement
   • Many young people, 25.1% aged 0–14, are still becoming parents, so births continue for years
   • Replacement is 2.0, so India is exactly at replacement and its population should stay level
   • The fertility figure must be wrong, since a country below replacement cannot grow in any way
3. 2.

   With 6.1 births per woman and 47.0% aged 0–14, what shape will Niger's pyramid likely keep, Tala asks?

   • Expansive with a wide base, if fertility stays high, since many young people will become parents
   • Expansive, and the population will certainly double within ten years, since the base is so wide
   • Constrictive soon, since the pyramid's narrowing from base to top will continue until it narrows at the base
   • Stationary soon, since fertility of 6.1 is far above replacement and a high rate soon levels off
4. 3.

   Japan has 1.2 births per woman and 29.6% aged 65+. What will its pyramid likely do, if fertility stays low, Zee asks?

   • Become stationary soon, since a population that has a wide top reaches a level shape at some point
   • Stay constrictive, with a narrow base and a wide top, since each generation is smaller than its parents' generation
   • Stay constrictive, and the population will fall by 29.6% in the next decade, which is the older share
   • Become expansive soon, since a top as wide as 29.6% turns into a wide base as the older people are replaced over time
5. 4.

   Which prediction about Germany, at 1.4 births per woman, is worded most carefully, Ari asks?

   • Germany's pyramid cannot be predicted, since a fertility figure for one year gives no guide to the future shape
   • Germany's base will narrow, since 1.4 is below replacement and below-replacement fertility cannot change
   • Germany's population will fall by half by 2060, since a fertility of 1.4 is two-thirds of replacement
   • If fertility stays near 1.4, Germany's base will probably keep narrowing, with fewer children in each new generation
6. 5.

   Germany's fertility is 1.4 and replacement is 2.1. Other things equal, how big is each generation of children compared with its parents' generation, Esme asks?

   • About half as large, since a fertility under 2.1 means that each generation is cut by one half
   • About 70% smaller, since 2.1 minus 1.4 is 0.7 and 0.7 is the share by which it is smaller
   • About two-thirds as large, since 1.4 divided by 2.1 is about 0.67, if nothing else changes
   • About 1.4 times as large, since the fertility figure itself is the size of each new generation
7. 6.

   Jun's note: 'Japan has 1.2 births per woman and 29.6% aged 65+, so Japan will disappear.' Which fix fits Cards E to G?

   • Keep it, since a fertility of 1.2 is so far below replacement that each generation is smaller until the population is gone
   • Change 'Japan' to 'Niger', since Niger's 2.6% aged 65+ is the smallest older share of the six
   • Delete the note, since a single year of fertility figures tells nothing about what happens to a population
   • Low fertility and a large older share point to aging and likely decline if they continue; 'disappear' goes further
8. 7.

   Germany has 1.4 births per woman and 22.8% aged 65+; Japan has 1.2 and 29.6%. Which statement is supported, Kira asks?

   • Japan has lower fertility and a larger older share, so it is likely to age faster than Germany if both persist
   • They age at the same rate, since both have below-replacement fertility and so move at one pace
   • Germany ages faster, since its fertility figure, 1.4, is higher and higher fertility means more older people there
   • Japan will age faster for certain, since 29.6% is already above Germany's 22.8% and cannot fall
9. 8.

   Niger's fertility, 6.1, is about three times India's, 2.0, yet its 0–14 share, 47.0%, is under twice India's, 25.1%. Why, Luz asks?

   • A share depends on the other age groups and on the past, not only on today's births per woman
   • The shares must be wrong, since three times the births should give three times the young people
   • Fertility counts births per woman at 15–64, while the 0–14 share counts all people, which differ by a factor of 3
   • India has far more people than Niger, so its share of young people is smaller than its births
10. 9.

    The United States pyramid is close to a column, yet its fertility is 1.6, below 2.1. How can both be true, using Card G, Milo asks?

    • Fertility of 1.6 means each woman has 1.6 children, so the population is stationary at that rate
    • The column shape reflects past births, which were higher; with 1.6 today, the base will narrow if fertility stays
    • The column shape shows the future, since a stationary shape means fertility will rise to replacement before long
    • One of the two must be wrong, since a column shape means births and deaths balance and 1.6 does not
11. 10.

    Brazil has 1.6 births per woman, 19.9% aged 0–14 and 10.6% aged 65+. What will its pyramid likely do if fertility stays low, Noah asks?

    • The older share will fall, since 10.6% is already small and the young will replace the older ones
    • The base will likely narrow and the older share will rise, if fertility stays below replacement
    • The pyramid will stay the same, since a country with 1.6 is close to the 2.1 needed to keep it level
    • The base will widen, since 19.9% aged 0–14 is nearly twice the 10.6% aged 65+, so more young people follow