Read population pyramids

Grade 9 Social Studies Worksheet - Challenge Me

Circle the best answer.

1. Read this first

   Card E, fertility in 2023 (births per woman; UN estimates, World Bank)

   Niger 6.1; India 2.0; Brazil 1.6; United States 1.6; Germany 1.4; Japan 1.2. Card F, age shares (as a share of the population: aged 0–14, aged 65+): Niger 47.0%, 2.6%; India 25.1%, 6.9%; Brazil 19.9%, 10.6%; United States 17.6%, 17.4%; Germany 13.9%, 22.8%; Japan 11.6%, 29.6%. Card G, notes: replacement fertility is about 2.1 births per woman; below it, each generation of children is smaller than its parents' generation. A population can keep growing for years after fertility falls to replacement or below, because many young people are still becoming parents. A pyramid reflects births, deaths and migration over past decades, not only fertility today. Pyramid types: expansive (wide base), constrictive (narrow base), stationary (about the same width from bottom to top).

2. 1.

   With 6.1 births per woman and 47.0% aged 0–14, what shape will Niger's pyramid likely keep, Tala asks?

   • Expansive, and the population will certainly double within ten years, since the base is so wide
   • Constrictive soon, since the pyramid's narrowing from base to top will continue until it narrows at the base
   • Stationary soon, since fertility of 6.1 is far above replacement and a high rate soon levels off
   • Expansive with a wide base, if fertility stays high, since many young people will become parents
3. 2.

   Japan has 1.2 births per woman and 29.6% aged 65+. What will its pyramid likely do, if fertility stays low, Zee asks?

   • Become expansive soon, since a top as wide as 29.6% turns into a wide base as the older people are replaced over time
   • Stay constrictive, with a narrow base and a wide top, since each generation is smaller than its parents' generation
   • Stay constrictive, and the population will fall by 29.6% in the next decade, which is the older share
   • Become stationary soon, since a population that has a wide top reaches a level shape at some point
4. 3.

   Which prediction about Germany, at 1.4 births per woman, is worded most carefully, Ari asks?

   • Germany's base will narrow, since 1.4 is below replacement and below-replacement fertility cannot change
   • Germany's population will fall by half by 2060, since a fertility of 1.4 is two-thirds of replacement
   • Germany's pyramid cannot be predicted, since a fertility figure for one year gives no guide to the future shape
   • If fertility stays near 1.4, Germany's base will probably keep narrowing, with fewer children in each new generation
5. 4.

   Brazil and the United States both have 1.6 births per woman, yet their pyramids differ. Using Card G, why, Bo asks?

   • Fertility is measured per woman, so it cannot be compared across countries with different populations
   • Brazil's pyramid is wider at the base, which shows Brazil's fertility is really higher than 1.6
   • The fertility figures must be wrong for one of the countries, since equal fertility makes equal pyramids in the same year
   • A pyramid reflects births, deaths and migration over past decades, so equal fertility now can sit on different shapes
6. 5.

   Germany's fertility is 1.4 and replacement is 2.1. Other things equal, how big is each generation of children compared with its parents' generation, Esme asks?

   • About 1.4 times as large, since the fertility figure itself is the size of each new generation
   • About 70% smaller, since 2.1 minus 1.4 is 0.7 and 0.7 is the share by which it is smaller
   • About two-thirds as large, since 1.4 divided by 2.1 is about 0.67, if nothing else changes
   • About half as large, since a fertility under 2.1 means that each generation is cut by one half
7. 6.

   Jun's note: 'Japan has 1.2 births per woman and 29.6% aged 65+, so Japan will disappear.' Which fix fits Cards E to G?

   • Delete the note, since a single year of fertility figures tells nothing about what happens to a population
   • Keep it, since a fertility of 1.2 is so far below replacement that each generation is smaller until the population is gone
   • Change 'Japan' to 'Niger', since Niger's 2.6% aged 65+ is the smallest older share of the six
   • Low fertility and a large older share point to aging and likely decline if they continue; 'disappear' goes further
8. 7.

   Germany has 1.4 births per woman and 22.8% aged 65+; Japan has 1.2 and 29.6%. Which statement is supported, Kira asks?

   • Germany ages faster, since its fertility figure, 1.4, is higher and higher fertility means more older people there
   • They age at the same rate, since both have below-replacement fertility and so move at one pace
   • Japan will age faster for certain, since 29.6% is already above Germany's 22.8% and cannot fall
   • Japan has lower fertility and a larger older share, so it is likely to age faster than Germany if both persist
9. 8.

   The United States pyramid is close to a column, yet its fertility is 1.6, below 2.1. How can both be true, using Card G, Milo asks?

   • The column shape shows the future, since a stationary shape means fertility will rise to replacement before long
   • Fertility of 1.6 means each woman has 1.6 children, so the population is stationary at that rate
   • One of the two must be wrong, since a column shape means births and deaths balance and 1.6 does not
   • The column shape reflects past births, which were higher; with 1.6 today, the base will narrow if fertility stays
10. 9.

    Brazil has 1.6 births per woman, 19.9% aged 0–14 and 10.6% aged 65+. What will its pyramid likely do if fertility stays low, Noah asks?

    • The pyramid will stay the same, since a country with 1.6 is close to the 2.1 needed to keep it level
    • The base will likely narrow and the older share will rise, if fertility stays below replacement
    • The base will widen, since 19.9% aged 0–14 is nearly twice the 10.6% aged 65+, so more young people follow
    • The older share will fall, since 10.6% is already small and the young will replace the older ones
11. 10.

    Pia's note: 'Niger's fertility is 6.1, so its population will double in ten years.' Which fix fits the cards?

    • Delete the note, since fertility says nothing about population change for a country in the long run
    • Change 'double' to 'halve', since Niger's pyramid is the one with the narrowest top of the six
    • Keep it, since 6.1 is three times the replacement of 2.1 and three times means doubling in a short time for the whole country
    • A fertility of 6.1 and a wide base point to continued growth; how fast depends on deaths and changes in fertility