Climate change: the measurements and the models
Grade 9 Science Worksheet - Challenge Me
Circle the best answer.
Read this first
Global temperature anomaly (NASA GISTEMP, vs 1951–1980)
Year Anomaly (°C) 1880 −0.17 1950 −0.17 1980 0.26 2000 0.39 2020 1.01 2024 1.28 A classmate says one cold winter shows global warming has stopped. Which reply fits NOAA, by Esme's reading?
- Correct; one cold season resets the global average for the whole decade
- No; winters warm by 0.20 °C in each single year
- Correct; warming stopped in 2016 and has held flat since
- No; the trend is measured over decades, about 0.20 °C a decade since 1982
A student says the Sun, not people, is the main cause of recent warming. Which reply fits IPCC AR6, by Jun's reading?
- No; natural drivers changed it by −0.1 to +0.1 °C, and humans about 1.07 °C
- Correct; natural drivers added about 1.07 °C, nearly the whole warming
- Correct; the Sun's output rose about 50% since 1850
- No; volcanoes added most of the recent warming instead
Note: Projections, not measurements. A student says IPCC projections say there will be exactly 4.4 °C of warming. Which reply fits AR6, by Kira's reading?
- Correct; each scenario points to the same 4.4 °C of warming
- No; 4.4 °C is the SSP5-8.5 best estimate, very likely 3.3 to 5.7 °C
- No; IPCC projects cooling under each of its scenarios
- Correct; 4.4 °C is the warming measured so far, since 1850
Note: Yearly means rounded to 0.1 ppm. A what-if, not a projection: if CO₂ kept rising 2.6 ppm a year (NOAA's 2015–2024 rate) from 424.6 ppm in 2024, what would it be in 2034, by Luz's math?
- About 398.6 ppm
- About 427.2 ppm
- About 1,104 ppm
- About 450.6 ppm
Global temperature anomaly (NASA GISTEMP, vs 1951–1980)
Year Anomaly (°C) 1880 −0.17 1950 −0.17 1980 0.26 2000 0.39 2020 1.01 2024 1.28 NOAA: Earth warmed about 0.06 °C per decade since 1850. At that rate, about how much warming is 17 decades, by Milo's math?
- About 0.35 °C
- About 0.1 °C
- About 10.2 °C
- About 1.0 °C
Note: Yearly means rounded to 0.1 ppm. NOAA: CO₂ was about 280 ppm before the mid-1700s. By what percent had it risen at Mauna Loa's 2024 value of 424.6 ppm, by Noah's math?
- About 52%
- About 152%
- About 34%
- About 145%
Which evidence best supports that the CO₂ rise comes from people, by Ren's reading (IPCC AR6)?
- IPCC: rises since about 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities
- Volcanoes emit more CO₂ each year than people do
- CO₂ has stayed near 280 ppm since the 1700s
- CO₂ at Mauna Loa fell steadily from 1960 to 2020, as less fuel was burned
Global temperature anomaly (NASA GISTEMP, vs 1951–1980)
Year Anomaly (°C) 1880 −0.17 1950 −0.17 1980 0.26 2000 0.39 2020 1.01 2024 1.28 Model data: two climate models both match 1880–2020 temperatures well. Why might scientists trust their projections more, by Tala's reading?
- Matching the past guarantees one exact future
- Matching the past is a test the models passed
- Models that match the past need no scenario
- Matching one warm year is enough to trust a model
Note: Yearly means rounded to 0.1 ppm. Which summary of the CO₂ record fits NOAA, by Zee's reading?
- From about 425 ppm before the 1700s down to about 280 ppm now, about 34% lower
- From about 280 ppm to about 425 ppm now, about 150% higher
- From about 280 ppm before the 1700s to about 425 ppm now, about 50% higher
- Steady near 280 ppm from the 1700s until now, with no rise
Note: Projections, not measurements. Which summary of IPCC projections fits AR6, by Bo's reading?
- Warming by 2081–2100 depends on the Sun: about 1.4 to 4.4 °C
- Warming by 2081–2100 is already measured at about 4.4 °C
- Warming by 2081–2100 depends on emissions: about 1.4 °C (SSP1-1.9) to 4.4 °C (SSP5-8.5)
- Each scenario projects the same 2.7 °C of warming by 2081–2100