How forecasts are made and why they are uncertain

Grade 9 Science Worksheet - Challenge Me

Circle the best answer.

1. 1.

   A forecast card reading 40% beside a 60% chance of none. A classmate says a 70% chance of rain that ended dry proves the forecast wrong. Which reply fits NWS, by Esme's reading?

   • Correct; it means rain falls for 70% of the whole day
   • Correct; 70% means it must rain
   • No; 70% leaves a 30% chance of no rain at that spot
   • No; it means rain over 70% of the area

2. Read this first

   Forecast accuracy (NOAA)

   Forecast length	About how often right
   5 days	90%
   7 days	80%
   10 days or more	about 50%

3. 2.

   A student says a 14-day forecast is as reliable as a 3-day one. Which reply fits NOAA, by Jun's reading?

   • No; the 14-day forecast is more reliable
   • No; accuracy falls from about 90% at 5 days to about half at 10 or more
   • Correct; longer forecasts use more data
   • Correct; models are equally good at each range
4. 3.

   A student says one cold week shows the climate has changed. Which reply fits NOAA, by Kira's reading?

   • Correct; each cold week changes the local climate for good
   • No; climate is set by a single year
   • Correct; climate is this week's weather
   • No; climate is a 30-year average, and one week is weather
6. 4.

   NOAA: the Global Forecast System runs 4 times a day, and each run takes 2 hours. How many hours of computing a day is that, by Milo's math?

   • 6 hours
   • 8 hours
   • 2 hours
   • 48 hours
7. 5.

   Using NOAA's grid rule, a 3 × 3 grid becomes 12 × 12 for the same area. How many times the points must be computed, by Noah's math?

   Use the picture in question 4.

   • 144 times
   • 16 times
   • 4 times
   • 8 times
8. 6.

   Four evidence cards, labeled A to D. Which evidence best shows a forecast system is reliable, by Pia's reading?

   • The model runs on many computers
   • Over many days, rain falls on about the share of days forecast
   • Its 10-day forecasts sound confident when read aloud on television
   • It rained once when 90% was forecast

9. Forecast accuracy (NOAA)

   Forecast length	About how often right
   5 days	90%
   7 days	80%
   10 days or more	about 50%

10. 7.

    Model data: two models agree for days 1 to 4 and split apart after day 5. What does that suggest, by Ren's reading (NOAA)?

    • Both models are already wrong from the very first day
    • Confidence drops beyond day 4, so give ranges
    • A new 30-year normal began on day 5
    • Forecasts improve after day 5
11. 8.

    A forecast card reading 40% beside a 60% chance of none. Which summary of chance-of-rain forecasts fits NWS, by Zee's reading?

    • The chance a spot gets at least 0.01 inch; the rest is the chance of none
    • The share of the area that gets rain
    • The share of the day that it rains
    • A promise that rain will fall

12. Forecast accuracy (NOAA)

    Forecast length	About how often right
    5 days	90%
    7 days	80%
    10 days or more	about 50%

13. 9.

    Which summary of forecast limits fits NOAA, by Ari's reading?

    • Equally right at each range
    • About 50% right at 5 days and 90% at 10
    • About 90% right at 5 days, 80% at 7, and about half at 10 or more
    • Right each time out to 30 days
14. 10.

    Which summary of how weather models work fits NOAA, by Bo's reading?

    • Average the past 30 years and then call that average tomorrow's weather
    • Guess at random, then keep the top guess
    • Use fewer grid points for more detail
    • Start from observations, solve the equations in time steps, repeat