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9th grade How forecasts are made and why they are uncertain worksheet

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Level: Building Confidence · On Level · Challenge Me

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How forecasts are made and why they are uncertain

Grade 9 Science Worksheet

NameDate

Circle the best answer.

  1. A city has 10 forecast spots, each with a 40% chance of rain (model data). About how many spots would you expect to get rain, by Esme's math?

    • Each of the 10
    • About 4
    • About 40
    • About 0.4

  2. Read this first

    Forecast accuracy (NOAA)

    Forecast lengthAbout how often right
    5 days90%
    7 days80%
    10 days or moreabout 50%

  3. Using the table, how much accuracy is lost going from a 5-day to a 10-day forecast, by Kira's math?

    • About 40 percentage points
    • About 50 percentage points
    • Zero; accuracy holds
    • About 10 percentage points

  4. A planner needs a forecast right at least 80% of the time (model need). Up to about how many days ahead does the table support, by Luz's reading?

    • About 10 days
    • About 7 days
    • About 30 days
    • About 1 day at most

  5. NOAA: models are generally accurate out about four days; after that, run-to-run differences grow. What should a day-8 forecast do, by Milo's reading?

    • Skip new observations
    • Show lower confidence, or a range
    • State the day-8 weather as certain
    • Use last year's weather instead

  7. NOAA: a 6 × 6 grid has 36 points and a 3 × 3 grid has 9 for the same area. How many times the computing does the finer grid need, by Noah's math?

    • 2 times
    • 4 times
    • 27 times
    • 36 times

  8. Why does a finer grid show more detail, by Pia's reading (NOAA)?

    Use the picture in question 5.

    • Finer grids need less computing
    • Grids set the climate normals
    • Fewer points make sharper forecasts
    • More grid points cover the same area, so smaller features show

  9. NOAA: smaller time steps make models more accurate. What is the trade-off, by Ren's reading?

    Use the picture in question 5.

    • They need less computing
    • They forecast climate instead
    • They need more computations
    • They skip the starting data

  11. NOAA: the Dallas/Fort Worth normal rainfall is 36.14 inches; one record year got 62.61 inches. How far above normal was that, by Tala's math?

    • About 36.14 inches
    • About 26.47 inches
    • About 1.73 inches
    • About 98.75 inches

  12. Why does one record-wet year barely move a 30-year normal, by Zee's reading (NOAA)?

    Use the picture in question 8.

    • Climate is each day's weather
    • The normal averages 30 years, so one year is a small part
    • Normals ignore rainfall
    • Normals reset each year

  13. A 30-year average is 36.14 inches a year, and one year comes in 26.47 inches above it. About how much does that one year raise the 30-year average, by Ari's math?

    Use the picture in question 8.

    • About 0.88 inch
    • About 8.8 inches
    • About 26.47 inches
    • About 0.088 inch
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9th grade How forecasts are made and why they are uncertain worksheet – printable
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About this worksheet

Read forecasts and explain why they are uncertain. Every version has 10 questions, and the answer key prints on the second page.

What your child will learn

  • I can read a chance of rain as the probability that a spot gets at least 0.01 inch, and find the chance of none.
  • I can explain why forecasts lose accuracy with time (about 90% at 5 days, 80% at 7, and about half at 10 or more).
  • I can describe how models start from observations and step forward, and tell weather from 30-year climate normals.

Standard: none (FL)

Words to know

probability of precipitation: The chance that a spot gets at least 0.01 inch

weather model: Computer equations that step the atmosphere forward

initialization: Loading observations as a model's starting state

time step: One jump forward in a model's calculation

climate normal: A 30-year average of weather values

Common mistakes

Your child misread the chance of rain. NWS: a 40% chance means a 40% probability that the forecast spot gets at least 0.01 inch, not rain 40% of the time or over 40% of the area.

Your child treated long forecasts as reliable as short ones. NOAA: a five-day forecast is right about 90% of the time, a seven-day about 80%, and a 10-day or longer about half the time.

Your child misdescribed weather models. NOAA: models start from observations, solve equations of motion in time steps, and need more computing for finer grids.

Questions parents ask

What is the most common mistake with how forecasts are made and why they are uncertain?

Your child misread the chance of rain. NWS: a 40% chance means a 40% probability that the forecast spot gets at least 0.01 inch, not rain 40% of the time or over 40% of the area.

Are these 9th grade science worksheets free to print?

Yes. All 6 printable versions at each level are free to print, with the answer key, and no account is needed.

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